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Here’s when CEOs think their businesses will have recovered from lockdown

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Good morning.

How quickly will business recover from the business lockdown? We’ve got new data from a Fortune survey of CEOs, done last week in collaboration with Deloitte, that sheds light on the question. Half of the CEOs believe their revenues will have returned to, or exceeded, pre-crisis levels by January. And more than half–58%–say their employment levels will have returned to, or exceeded, pre-crisis levels by January. Not bad.

Of course, that still leaves almost half of the CEOs who expect their recovery to take longer. Another 20% of companies expect revenues to recover by June of 2021, and an additional 15% see revenue recovery by January of 2022. By June of 2022, all but 4% believe their revenues will have recovered, while all but 14% believe their employment levels will have recovered. So it’s not exactly a V–maybe more of a “square root” recovery.

The survey also provides compelling evidence that this economic downturn has been unique in modern times in that it 1) prompted an increase in investment, and 2) accelerated technological innovation. Some 77% of CEOs say that their company’s “digital transformation was accelerated during the crisis.” And a roughly equal percentage said the pandemic “created significant new opportunities for our company.” Moreover, significant percentages said they increased investment in worker safety (50%), IT (40%), innovation (36%) and consumer/end-user experience (35%). Only 16% said they didn’t increase investment in any area.

You can read more on the survey here. News below.

Alan Murray
@alansmurray

alan.murray@fortune.com

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